Forecasting Manager - Innovative Medicines and Vaccines

About the role

GSK is looking for a Forecasting Manager in Demand & Supply Strategy, a commercial forecasting role supporting robust commercial and financial decisions for innovative medicines and vaccines. The role works closely with Marketing, Finance, Medical, Market Access and Business/Commercial Excellence, turning market dynamics, patient demand, product performance and business assumptions into forecasts, scenarios and insights that cover pre-launch, launch, in-market performance and long-range planning. It also shares forecast assumptions with Supply Chain and reviews inventory coverage and supply availability.

Key responsibilities

• Establish, document and maintain commercial demand and financial forecasts for prioritized medicines and vaccines, covering pre-launch, launch and in-market products, for Monthly forecast, Annual Plan and Long Range Forecast cycles.
• Develop sell-in and sell-out SKU-level forecasts using quantitative techniques, historical performance, market dynamics, patient flow, demand drivers, market access and competitive factors.
• Lead scenario planning and sensitivity analysis on patient uptake, market share, competitor events, pricing and access changes.
• Communicate forecast assumptions to Supply Chain and Manufacturing and review inventory coverage and supply availability.
• Build, validate and optimize forecast models and tools, using Python and analytics tools to automate and improve them.
• Monitor landing estimates, actuals versus forecast, key drivers, accuracy and bias, and recommend improvements.
• Partner with Marketing, Finance, Medical, Market Access and Business Excellence on brand strategy, financial planning and performance reviews.
• Drive continuous improvement, automation and standardization of forecasting processes, and coach and train colleagues.

Required profile

• 5+ years of experience in pharmaceutical or healthcare commercial forecasting, business analytics, financial forecasting or related analytical roles.
• Experience developing and explaining patient, demand, sell-in and sell-out forecasts, scenario and variance analysis, and performance reporting.
• Experience analyzing sales, prescription, patient, market access or other commercial data to find drivers, risks and opportunities.
• Experience working with cross-functional stakeholders on brand, financial and launch planning.
• University degree in a quantitative or business-related discipline; legal right to work in Japan.
• Bilingual Japanese / English preferred.

Required skills

• Advanced Excel and PowerPoint; data visualization, automation or analytics tools a plus.
• Preferred: experience with IQVIA, MDV/JMDC or primary marketing research data, Power BI, Tableau, SQL or Python.
• Preferred: deep understanding of machine learning techniques.